In this section, we will adopt a global perspective by analyzing the intellectual evolution of major world powers and the consequences for their positions in the global hierarchy.
1. The End of the United States
2. Slower but Inexorable Decline of Western Europe
3. East Asia
4. The Emergence of a Chinese Global Supremacy
1. The End of the United States
Evolution of average intelligence in the United States based on the racial composition:
|
The United States will experience both dysgenic fertility and immigration for a number of decades in the twenty-first century. The most recent evidence shows that dysgenic fecundity is still present in the United States (Loehlin 1997, Lynn 1998, 1999b). This is likely to persist as long as a large number of educated and intelligent women choose to remain childless, to pursue their careers and to maintain their affluent lifestyle, while less educated and less intelligent women continue to have children. Either because of their ineffective use of contraception or voluntarily to live on welfare as a better alternative to work. There is no sign of a spontaneous solution to this problem that is likely to emerge, and we must predict that this dysgenic fecundity will continue for the foreseeable future.
More serious and insoluble will be the problem of dysgenic immigration. This began on a large scale with the 1965 Immigration Act, which led in the 1980s to the admission to the United States of about one million immigrants a year, largely Hispanic. and Asians and blacks. This immigration will continue, and the number of Hispanics and Blacks will also increase because of their high fertility compared to whites. In 1992, the US Population Survey showed that the number of children of Hispanic women between the ages of 35 and 44 was 2.47 and 2.23 for black women, compared to 1.89 for whites. These differences in fertility are likely to continue in the indefinite future.
As Hispanics and Blacks will grow in increasing proportion in the US population, there will be three predictable consequences. First, because Hispanics and Blacks have a lower intelligence level than whites at about 92 and 85 IQ points, respectively, the intelligence level of the population will fall, causing a reduction in economic productivity and a decline, and generating several social problems associated with low intelligence.
Second, a Hispanic coalition led by people of color will become the dominant political force. The United States will then break away from its alliance with Western Europe. This alliance, formalized in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the second half of the twentieth century, was based on the ethnic affinity and common cultural heritage of Western European peoples and the dominant ethnic group, the Europeans, in the USA. As the whites cease to be the dominant group in the United States and will be replaced by a coalition of people of color, the US-Europe ethnic and cultural coalition will disappear. The United States will be more and more Hispanic and will ally itself with Latin America in terms of world politics.
Third, the increasingly multiracial nature of the American population will generate enormous sources of problems for social cohesion. Major racial and ethnic groups will continue to perform at different intellectual levels regarding education and income, with whites and Asians performing best, middle-aged Hispanics and blacks performing the least. These differences will continue to generate resentment among Hispanics and Blacks, who will press for compensation through affirmative action and the establishment of ethnic quotas and booking business deals for themselves. The different racial groups will also endeavor to increase immigration quotas and legalization for illegal immigrants of their own people. Crime rates will get worse because Hispanics and Blacks have much higher rates of crime than whites and Asians. For example, in 1996, the United States Department of Justice’s per 100,000 incarceration rates were 193 for whites, 688 for Hispanics, and 1571 for blacks, while Asian crime rates were nearly identical to those of whites (Taylor & Whitney, 1999; also see Rushton, 1995). To escape black and Hispanic crime, there will be continuous white and Asian migration to flee black and Hispanic cities. Whites and Asians will also be forced to live in fortified cities. The legal system will break down while judges and juries will pronounce perverse verdicts favoring their own racial and ethnic groups, as has already happened in parts of New York in what has become known as the “Bronx Jury”.
Some people have predicted that while the quality of life for Whites and Asians will deteriorate, interracial conflicts will become so severe that they will lead to civil wars between different racial groups and a breakup of the United States in states independent, racially homogeneous states. Independents, each with their own economies, policies, and culture “(Master’s degree, 1999, p.4). The model of this scenario is the break-up of the former Soviet Union in 1991 and of Yugoslavia in 1998 into ethnically and culturally independent states. One possible result of this racial conflict is that the predominantly white states of the North and Midwest will separate from the Union. In contrast, the Hispanic majorities, which will appear in the southern states, will opt to join Mexico or form a Hispanic independent nation. A more likely scenario is that the United States will continue as one country, more and more Hispanic, and it will look like Hispanic republics in Latin America. In this perspective, the United States will experience growing anarchy, political anarchy, racial conflict, and huge wealth disparities between the rich and the poor. Perhaps when the Europeans lose their political power, they will seek to find it by overthrowing democratic institutions and replacing them with a military regime, as has happened regularly across Latin America. However, the United States will gradually lose its position as the world’s leading economic, scientific, and military power and will eventually cease to be a major force in world politics.
2. The European Union
Europe is likely to continue to experience problems of dysgenic fertility and dysgenic immigration in the 21st century. Europe has not allowed primary immigration (immigrants with no other reason to immigrate than the desire to live in richer countries than their own), and there are no lobbies to allow primary immigration. Nevertheless, there is substantial immigration, asylum seekers, and illegal immigrants who constitute secondary immigration. In Great Britain, there were about 0.3 million blacks and South Asians in 1961, as recorded in that year’s census. In the 1991 census, the number had increased to about 3 million. This increase is expected to continue due to the higher fertility of these populations and additional immigration. The 1991 British census reported that non-European immigrants accounted for about 5 percent of the population, but among children aged 0 to 9, they accounted for 9.3 percent of the population (Coleman, 1995). The number of non-Europeans is also likely to grow due to continued immigration of asylum seekers and illegal immigrants. It is even possible that the 10-fold increase in the number of immigrants to Britain from 1961 to 1991 will continue at the same rate, producing a non-white majority in the second half of the 21st century.
Similar increases in the number of immigrants have occurred in other Western European countries. Many of them are from Turkey, North Africa, and the Near East. Many of them are Muslims, whose first loyalty is to their Islamic faith, and they will not be assimilated, at least for many generations. Their intelligence level is relatively low, with an average IQ of 88. A second large group consists of Africans from sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean who have entered Europe from former colonies or as refugees from civil wars. African. Immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa show low intelligence, poor educational attainment, high rates of unemployment, social dependency, and criminality, similar to Blacks in America. In Britain, blacks have an average IQ of about 85 (Mackintosh & Mascie-Taylor, 1984), an unemployment rate about twice that of whites (Blackaby, Drinkwater, Leslie, and Murphy, 1997), and a crime rate of about six times that of whites (Smith, DJ, 1997). In France, blacks have an unemployment rate of about 50 percent higher than that of whites (Model, Fisher, and Silberman, 1999) and a crime rate of about eight times that of whites (Tournier, 1997). In Sweden, blacks have a crime rate about two-and-a-half times that of whites (Martens, 1997). In the Netherlands, immigrants from Surinam, Turkey, and North Africa have an average IQ of 89, 88, and 84, respectively (Te Nijenhuis, 1997). These immigrants caused social problems and racial conflicts similar to those experienced in the United States, with consequent migration of whites leaving the inner-city ghettos. These social problems and costs will increase as their numbers increase due to relatively high fertility and continued immigration, asylum seekers, and illegal immigrants.
It will be impossible for European nations to make significant corrections to these dysgenic processes because of the opposition of special interest groups and predominantly liberal media. Thus, as the twenty-first century unfolds, Europe will be weakened by fertility and dysgenic immigration, but this will be slower than in the United States. In the mid-century decades, Europe will become the main power of the European peoples. Europe will be militarily weakened by the loss of the United States as an ally, but will be able to develop its own military capability to replace it. Europe is likely to be strengthened by its evolution into some form of federal state and by the incorporation of the nations of Eastern and Southern Europe, and possibly even Russia. For these reasons, Europe will be a formidable world power in the foreseeable future.
To read: “Race Differences, Immigration and the Twilight of European Peoples“, Richard Lynn, 2009.
In 1998:
In 2030: Continuation of the gradual emergence of East Asia with its passage to the first rank in economic, military, and scientific areas.
Intellectual regression in the Western areas and its impact on development.
3. East Asia
The dysgenic processes were weak in East Asian nations in the last decades of the twentieth century. Dysgenic fecundity ceased in Japan in the 1980s and was minimized in other East Asian countries (Lynn, 1996). There has been virtually no immigration, dysgenic or otherwise, except in Japan, where there has been immigration from other Asian countries, including Vietnam. Still, the amount is too small to have a significantly dysgenic impact, and this situation will continue.
Intelligence levels in East Asian countries are high, with an average IQ of around 105. These high intelligence levels have been a major factor in the rapid economic development of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China in the second half of the twentieth century, during which their economic growth rate was about three times higher than in Western democracies. These high rates of economic growth can be projected forward in the twenty-first century, with the consequence that these countries will become more and more powerful. The people and political leaders of the nations of East Asia are in favor of eugenics. Eugenic programs have been introduced in Singapore and China in recent years. In the 21st century, more ambitious and sophisticated eugenic programs will likely be adopted in these countries and possibly in other East Asian countries.
There are five reasons to anticipate such an evolution. Firstly, the political leaders and people of these countries do not share the high priority accorded to individual rights at the expense of the collective social rights that developed during the second half of the twentieth century in Western countries and were mainly responsible for rejecting eugenics. Throughout Asia, there is a great acceptance of the legitimacy of social rights, which provide the political and ethical legitimacy for eugenics.
Second, this value system is expressed in eugenic attitudes among geneticists and doctors in China. In a 1998 survey, it was shown that Chinese geneticists and doctors recommended termination of pregnancy for explicitly eugenic reasons in women with fetuses with genetic disorders.
Third, political leaders in Singapore and China had already launched eugenic programs in the last two decades of the 20th century, suggesting a willingness to implement other measures.
Fourth, the people of East Asia have a high level of skills needed to develop and apply biotechnology related to human eugenics, such as embryo selection, cloning, and genetic engineering.
Fifth, political leaders, or at least some in these countries, will likely have the political will to implement these eugenic programs. This is suggested by the draconian one-child policy introduced in China in 1979, which stipulated that couples were only allowed to have one child. This edict was enforced by the compulsory installation of an IUD, forced abortion, and, as a deterrent, the imposition of heavy fines amounting to about half of the annual income for couples with a second child. In the Saure period, couples complying with good politics received rewards in the form of cash payments and food or housing rations.
These policies reduced China’s total fertility rate to 1.9 in the early 1990s. A state that succeeds in imposing population policies of this type should have no difficulty introducing both classic eugenics programs and the new eugenics of human biotechnology.
The political leaders of the most authoritarian states in East Asia are likely to have both the motivation and the means to introduce strong programs of eugenics, and we must anticipate that some of them will do so.
4. The Emergence of a Chinese Global Supremacy
China will inevitably emerge as the greatest peaceful power among East Asian nations. China’s rapid economic growth rate in the last decades of the twentieth century can be expected to continue, with the result that in the middle of the twenty-first century, China will reach parity with the world. In economics, science, and military power. As China ramps up during the 21st century, this will be concomitant to America’s decline, as China and Europe will evolve as the two major world powers. A struggle for world supremacy will develop between them, which will resemble the armed race between the United States and the Soviet Union in the second half of the twentieth century. Europe will be at a disadvantage because of its many nations and the difficulty of achieving an agreed military strategy among the 25 or so nations of the European Union, and because of the gradual loss of social cohesion resulting from continued immigration and population growth of non-European peoples. China will have the advantages of a racially homogeneous nation-state and culture, and the high level of intelligence of its population, while Afro-Maghreb immigration in Europe will have caused a decrease in intellectual level, which will impact the level of development. In addition, Europe will not be able to introduce eugenic programs to improve the quality of its population, while China is likely to further develop eugenic programs introduced in the last years of the twentieth century. China’s use of eugenics and, more specifically, the use of biotechnologies for embryo selection, cloning, and genetic engineering, is likely to give it a decisive advantage in this struggle for world supremacy, giving it ultimate victory and emergence as the world’s superpower.
As China gains supremacy over Europe as an economic, scientific, and military power in the second half of the 21st century, It will use its power to take control of the world and establish a world state. This development must be planned for two reasons.
First, the political leaders of dictatorships and oligarchies have always tried to increase the size of the territories they control. History is a succession of political leaders who have dedicated themselves to this goal, including Alexander the Great; a series of Roman generals and emperors who colonized most of the known world; Genghis Khan, and the British, French and Dutch oligarchies who, between them, colonized a large part of the world between the sixteenth and nineteenth century. In the twentieth century, Hitler wanted to conquer the world, and in the course of the century, the leaders of the Soviet Union had the same goal (Schweller, 1998). It is sometimes argued that the Chinese are an exception to this general principle, as if they did not have the gene of territorial expansion. This is unlikely. In the second half of the twentieth century, China annexed Tibet and led a border war with India in 1962. China seeks to gain ground on Taiwan. There is no reason to suppose that China’s future political leaders will differ in their territorial ambitions from those of other oligarchies.
Secondly, in the twenty-first century, there is a chance that a growing number of unstable states will develop nuclear and biological weapons capable of inflicting considerable damage and with unpredictable consequences for all of humanity. North Korea or Iran presents the greatest threat of this kind, but others are likely to emerge. With technological advances and the dissemination of information, this threat will grow. Chinese leaders are likely to come to the conclusion that it would be in their interest to take control of the world and use their power to disarm these rogue states. This will be the best way to protect themselves and the rest of humanity from the dangers of using these weapons.
Once China has developed a superior military capability, it will probably not be necessary to use it to establish dominance over the world. The mere threat of its use should be sufficient to compel the rest of the world to submit. If, however, some states refused, it would become necessary to use some of these weapons to demonstrate their effectiveness and enforce the bid, in the same way that America dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to force the capitulation of Japan in 1945. One or two examples of this type should be sufficient to force the world to accept Chinese authority.